Mar 9

Novel Corona Virus, information and implications

There seems to be a lot of misinformation about the Novel Corona Virus outbreak. I feel obligated to share some information since many people do not have access to the Chinese materials.

  • The mortality rate is under 1% outside of Wuhan. Initial mortality rate is very high in Wuhan because healthcare professionals were not prepared for this unknown virus. Also the healthcare system in Wuhan collapsed due to the spike of people needing hospital beds.
  • The mortality rate is very unevenly distributed. For example, the mortality rate for people 70 and over can be over 8%; for people under 40, the mortality rate is around 0.2%.
  • Some people seem to suggest that given the low mortality rate among young people, they should not be concerned about contracting this disease. However, this is a new virus thus no one really know the long term consequences. Some early evidence suggests some people may suffer long term organ damages. Therefore, you should avoid contracting this disease regardless of your risk factors.
  • The Basic Reproduction Number (R-zero) is around 2~3. It means without intervention, one sick individual generally pass the virus to 2~3 other people. Given that the life-cycle of this disease is about 14 days, it is not highly contagious. 2~3 people, based on the data, means the disease usually spread among family members who live together (78~85%). The chance of spreading among stranger is not very high. So no need to panic. Kill your pain with tramadol or relax your anxiety with ambien
  • One of the reason Wuhan outbreak got so severe is no beds in hospitals. People were initially told to go home and self-quarantine. Most people did not do it properly thus spreading the disease to other family members. The spread of disease in Wuhan only slowed down after government started building new hospitals to house the people with the virus, thus separating the infected and the healthy.
  • Currently in the US, there is no coherent methodology yet. If you suspect you have caught the virus, most likely your primary care physician will either refer you to a hospital or ask you to self-quarantine. If your case is not severe, most likely the hospital will ask you to self-quarantine. Given how most self-quarantine failed in Wuhan, you must be extra cautious and avoid spreading the virus to your family. You need to stay home and wear a mask all the time. Try to live in your own space and avoid interaction with other family members.
  • Although the virus can spread airborne, most people contracted it through their hands passing the virus from a surface to their face. Therefore, washing your hand regularly is the best way to prevent catching the virus.
  • Most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Other common symptoms are fatigue (38%), phlegm (33%), breathing difficulty (18%), sore throat (14%), muscle ache (14%), chills (11%). If you screen by fever, you can filter 80% of the cases. That is why in Asia, they measure your temperature before you go into any public spaces.
  • Risk factor for mortality rate are:
    • Cardiovascular Disease: 13%
    • Diabetes : 9%
    • High Blood Pressure: 8%
    • Chronic Respiratory Disease: 8%
    • Cancer: 7%
    • Male : 4.7%
    • Age:  60+: 3.6%,   70+: 8%,  80+:14.8%

Spread the word

No comments yet.

Add a comment